27 January, 2012

The pipeline construction could begin this year

"Gazprom" ready in December this year to begin construction of the South Stream pipeline is worth € 15 billion, which was not given the support the European Commission and therefore is considered to be economically meaningless. In a monopoly there is still time to negotiate with the EU to support South Stream, but it becomes harder to do - open to the criticism of the project joined the United States. To revise their plans for South Stream «Gazprom" can only be if he managed to agree on control of Ukraine's gas transportation system.

On Friday, the head of "Gazprom" Alexei Miller held a meeting on the construction of South Stream. As the result, "Gazprom" announced that the construction of the tube is accelerated - it will start this year, in December. A major advantage of the South Stream can not be called: previous deadline was the first quarter of 2013 - and "Gazprom" only formally fulfilled Prime Minister Vladimir Putin instructed to expedite the project (given in December). Detailed breakdown of the construction schedule in the monopoly does not explain, because it will be ready no earlier than February, the Board of Directors South Stream Transport AG (operator). With the funding, "the question is still open," said one of the interlocutors, "b" in the structures of the "Gazprom" on Friday, noting however that the problem with it should not be (debt / EBITDA ratio less than unity monopoly).

"Gazprom" indicates readiness to begin construction of South Stream, and without having to project the status of the Trans-European Network (TEN) from the European Commission. Energokomissar EU Guenther Oettinger refused to provide it, and South Stream, would have to back up their power by pumping gas is not only the owners but also third parties - it jeopardizes the load and return pipes. Nevertheless, "you have to start the project, otherwise no one runs out in the schedule," says one of managers of "Gazprom" and "parallel to agree with Mr. Ettinger (regular talks with the Ministry of Energy will hold in February .-" b ")."

However, it seems that now the "Gazprom" and Moscow will have to agree on South Stream, not only with Europe but also from the United States. To open the pressure on the project after the European Commission launched the U.S. State Department, which has recently been more willing to comment on the gas issue. The representative of the U.S. Department of Energy Richard Morningstar said in Kyiv on Friday that "our Russian friends seem to really want to build South Stream, but here's why - it's clear only one of them." Thus he made it clear that the project in its current form stranded.

At the same time, he recommended that Ukraine does not give "Gazprom" control of its gas transportation system, even in exchange for a promise of a monopoly by half (to $ 220 per 1 thousand cu. M) to reduce the price of gas to the republic. If Ukraine finally agreed to a deal, "Gazprom" probably would not have to build a very expensive (over € 15 billion) South Stream, said Alexei Kokin of "Uralsib". In any case, the current situation of "economic sense in the South Stream is really a little," admits an analyst and a statement of willingness to build it at all costs - it's the pressure of "Gazprom" to Ukraine, which makes a transit of gas (about $ 3 billion per year).

Finally, the United States, like Russia, is now also insist on accelerating the construction of a new gas pipeline from West to East, but that would bypass Russia. And if the chief rival South Stream is still considered a European project Nabucco (initiated by the Austrian OMV, capacity - 32 bcm. M per year), now the United States call on the EU to give it up "as too difficult both financially and with time points of view. " Instead, the State Department recommends that Europe maintain a more compact and cheaper (by 10 billion cubic meters. M) gas pipeline project from Azerbaijan through Turkey to Europe (introduced in the fall).

At the recent U.S. proposal to the European Commission still did not react. The most offensive for "Gazprom" in all of this is that "like it is time to negotiate is, but it is not clear how to use it with advantage," said the source "b", which is close to a monopoly. Transit countries like Ukraine and Turkey, which determine today the delivery routes of gas from East to West, "every month, changing their position, and how to negotiate with them, is unclear." With Gunther Oettinger agreement "as hard because he is in his decisions largely nesamostoyatelen," said the source "b". Vitaly Kryukov from "IFD Kapital," believes that in its dialogue with Europe, "Gazprom" and the Ministry of Energy should proceed from the worst: The European Commission certainly did not give the status of TEN pipeline South Stream. So far they have proceeded from the back.

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