On Friday, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko held with the regions of a teleconference meeting on the passing of winter. He urged local authorities to monitor retail prices for fuel, noting that "despite the increase of excise duties in January 2012, we have an agreement in principle with the oil companies, market participants POL neroste on energy prices, including fuel at retail ". Energy itself also will monitor prices to remain at the level of December 2011. Regions must also "take a closer look at how independent gas stations realize this agreement."
In the Energy Ministry hastened to clarify that the Minister was not referring to "a formalized agreement" with the oil industry because it "would be contrary to applicable law." "Prices of petroleum products we market, and the Ministry of Energy is not going to regulate them", - assured the "Y" in the ministry, explaining that it was only on the constant interaction with the oil. In addition, the Ministry of Energy, "provided the necessary conditions for increasing the fuel and maintain prices at the level of last year." We are talking about the growth of gasoline supply in the domestic market and high inventories at tank farms and refineries (as at 18 January amounted to 1.349 million tons, 21.4% more than in January 2011.
However, oil unofficially confirm the words of Sergei Shmatko. On condition of anonymity, they say that there was "direct evidence" to fix the wholesale and retail prices before the presidential elections in March 2012. He gave his Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin at a meeting on January 10. In the same oil companies allegedly promised to compensate for losses after the election, but did not specify exactly how. Only one of the participants said that what was meant was the standard price-fixing on fuel for farmers. But it happens regularly, is formulated differently, and oil solutions are always quietly commented officially.
Experts clarify that while price fixing easy for oil companies - now supplies motor fuels to the domestic market significantly more cost-effective export. According to the IAC "Cortez", on January 13, spot prices for gasoline AI-95 exceeded the export equivalent for 1931 rubles. per ton, diesel fuel for the winter - to 1262 rubles. per tonne. Moreover, the unprecedented level of fuel stocks gained on the recommendation of the Ministry of Energy, has already begun to lead to lower prices. From December 30 to January 13, spot prices for gasoline AI-95 decreased by 0.37% on winter diesel - at 0.81%. In the wholesale segment, the price of gasoline fell by 0.82%, for diesel fuel - by 0.1%. In the retail segment for the Christmas holidays the price of petrol AI-95 decreased by 0.17%, to 28.55 rubles. for 1 liter of diesel fuel rose by 0.07%, to 27.95 rubles. for 1 liter.
As explained by the "Y" director of development IAC "Cortez" Paul Strokov between small wholesale gasoline prices (24.63 rubles. Per 1 L) and retail (28.55 rubles. Per 1 liter), there is "sufficient lag to mitigate the consequences increase in excise taxes "(about 1 USD. 1 l depending on the environmental class of fuel). But if oil prices rise or fall even further inland, the oil may be lost.
From December 30 to January 13 export netback (the world price minus transportation costs and taxes) of gasoline Ai-95 grew by 15%, from 22 895 to 26 444 rubles. per ton, came close to his stock (27 511 thousand rubles.) and spot (28 375 rubles.) prices. If the rise in prices continues, the situation could be repeated, which preceded the April gasoline crisis, when exports of petroleum products were significantly more profitable than domestic shipments.
One participant held on Thursday, meeting the operational staff informed the Ministry of Energy, "Kommersant" that the companies "in a gentle manner," advised not to reduce inventory levels, in other words, not to increase exports. The occasion was the information that some oil companies in January began to increase exports of gasoline, despite the prohibitive "crisis management" export duty. However, Paul Strokov sure netback growth in January reflects a jump in oil prices worldwide, due to Iran's promise to close the Strait of Hormuz, and will soon return to previous levels, reducing the profitability of exports.
Ultimately, however, analysts say, to avoid the price increase will not succeed. Andrew Polischuk of the BCS says that from July excise will rise by another 1-1.5 rubles. with 1 liter, and the company will gradually raise prices since the end of March while the withdrawal of refinery for scheduled maintenance. However, much will depend on the government's position - according to sources, "Y", on Monday held a regular meeting with Igor Sechin, the heads of oil companies.
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