At today's auction, the yen has returned to the values of two months ago, gained a foothold above the level of ¥ 78 per U.S. dollar. Investors get rid of the Japanese currency since the first time in 1980 in Japan recorded trade deficit, which in 2011 totaled 65.55 trillion yen. However, until the expense of trade will be positive, and the debt crisis in Europe is far from being resolved, the hardness of the yen is unshakable, say market participants.
The second consecutive day the yen sharply losing ground against the dollar. During today's trading the Japanese yen was fixed below the level of ¥ 78 per dollar. According to Reuters, 15:30 GMT for the yen was ¥ 78,24 to the dollar, which is 0.6% below the previous day's close. For two days the Japanese currency fell by 1.6% and returned to the values of the end of November 2011. Aggressive yen is losing ground in late October last year, after Japan's Finance Ministry has carried out foreign exchange intervention, which could reach ¥ 5 trillion (see "b-movie" of 31 October). Then one day the yen fell by 3.4%, to ¥ 77,89 per $ 1 (during the day it became cheaper to 5.54%, to ¥ 79,53 per $ 1), which was the strongest day drop in the Japanese currency since October 2008.
The current depreciation of the yen was due to the results of yesterday's meeting of the Bank of Japan. As expected, the regulator has kept its key interest rate in the range of 0-0.1% - this rate has remained unchanged since October 2010. However, this was reduced economic growth forecast for 2011 and 2012. Thus, the regulator expects decline in GDP in 2011 to 0.4% against the forecast of economic growth of 0.3% made in October 2011. The Bank of Japan predicts the growth of GDP in 2012 to 2%, whereas previously expected to grow by 2.2%. One of the main risks to the economy of the country he calls the debt crisis in Europe, which can result in a slowdown of the economy not only of the European region and the world at large.
In addition, today the Ministry of Finance of Japan reported that for the first time since 1980, recorded trade deficit, which amounted to 2.49 trillion 2011 yen (about $ 32 billion), reports the Japanese agency "Jiji." According to the analyst, "TKB Capital" Sergei Karyhalina The main reasons are the consequences of the March deficit of earthquakes, high exchange rate, as well as a marked increase in the value of oil exports. Japan's export volume in 2011 decreased by 2.7%, to 65.55 trillion yen (about $ 843 billion), reports The Associated Press. "In the long run chronic trade deficit could lead to current account deficit is that, given the huge debt may force investors to sell Japanese bonds en masse and bring down the currency," - said partner UFG Wealth Management Oksana Kuchura.
However, market participants are skeptical that the weakening yen will be prolonged. According to Sergei Karyhalina, despite the trade deficit, by trading in Japan is still confident the positive, so the data published by the Ministry of Finance will not have a sustained effect on the yen. "Fundamentally, it still looks pretty strong, though it may be under pressure during the growing appetite for risk and enhance the operations of carry-trade», - says Mr. Karyhalin. "Until the debt crisis in Europe will be resolved, the yen, which is a traditional safe haven will be in high demand among investors", - summarized Oksana Kuchura.
The second consecutive day the yen sharply losing ground against the dollar. During today's trading the Japanese yen was fixed below the level of ¥ 78 per dollar. According to Reuters, 15:30 GMT for the yen was ¥ 78,24 to the dollar, which is 0.6% below the previous day's close. For two days the Japanese currency fell by 1.6% and returned to the values of the end of November 2011. Aggressive yen is losing ground in late October last year, after Japan's Finance Ministry has carried out foreign exchange intervention, which could reach ¥ 5 trillion (see "b-movie" of 31 October). Then one day the yen fell by 3.4%, to ¥ 77,89 per $ 1 (during the day it became cheaper to 5.54%, to ¥ 79,53 per $ 1), which was the strongest day drop in the Japanese currency since October 2008.
The current depreciation of the yen was due to the results of yesterday's meeting of the Bank of Japan. As expected, the regulator has kept its key interest rate in the range of 0-0.1% - this rate has remained unchanged since October 2010. However, this was reduced economic growth forecast for 2011 and 2012. Thus, the regulator expects decline in GDP in 2011 to 0.4% against the forecast of economic growth of 0.3% made in October 2011. The Bank of Japan predicts the growth of GDP in 2012 to 2%, whereas previously expected to grow by 2.2%. One of the main risks to the economy of the country he calls the debt crisis in Europe, which can result in a slowdown of the economy not only of the European region and the world at large.
In addition, today the Ministry of Finance of Japan reported that for the first time since 1980, recorded trade deficit, which amounted to 2.49 trillion 2011 yen (about $ 32 billion), reports the Japanese agency "Jiji." According to the analyst, "TKB Capital" Sergei Karyhalina The main reasons are the consequences of the March deficit of earthquakes, high exchange rate, as well as a marked increase in the value of oil exports. Japan's export volume in 2011 decreased by 2.7%, to 65.55 trillion yen (about $ 843 billion), reports The Associated Press. "In the long run chronic trade deficit could lead to current account deficit is that, given the huge debt may force investors to sell Japanese bonds en masse and bring down the currency," - said partner UFG Wealth Management Oksana Kuchura.
However, market participants are skeptical that the weakening yen will be prolonged. According to Sergei Karyhalina, despite the trade deficit, by trading in Japan is still confident the positive, so the data published by the Ministry of Finance will not have a sustained effect on the yen. "Fundamentally, it still looks pretty strong, though it may be under pressure during the growing appetite for risk and enhance the operations of carry-trade», - says Mr. Karyhalin. "Until the debt crisis in Europe will be resolved, the yen, which is a traditional safe haven will be in high demand among investors", - summarized Oksana Kuchura.
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