Last year, Russian banks have record profits - 848 billion rubles., Said yesterday the Central Bank. Despite the fact that a substantial part of it formed by the dissolution of reserves, the main activities of the banks have also shown impressive results: corporate lending increased by 26%, retail - 36%. The Bank of Russia considers reasonable growth by 20-25%, indicating that the rates above this level are "alarming" in the current economic situation.
As a result of 2011 earnings of the banking sector amounted to a record 848 billion rbl., Reported yesterday, deputy chairman Alexei Simanovsky. In 2010, the financial result of the banking system amounted to only 550 billion rubles. This year's record result on profits is unlikely to happen again, predicts CB. "I do not think it will repeat the same profit," - said Mr. Simanovsky reporters on Thursday.
Record profit is largely due to no direct results of the banks in the past year, and the effect of the dissolution of reserves for possible loan losses, formed in 2008-2009. If in 2010 only part of the banks began to dissolve the reserves, the last year it began to make the most conservative players. Data on the proportion of all Russian banks earned 848 billion rubles. came to the dissolution of reserves, yet. However, for example, the Savings Bank during the year mainly dissolved previously established reserves as a result of their costs up to 2011 amounted to 5 billion rubles. against 155.5 billion rubles. a year earlier.
Factor of dissolution of previously established reserves gradually ceases to play a key role in banks' profits. However, the performance of their primary up to 2011 have been impressive. The growth of corporate lending in the system, according to Central Bank data, 26%, against 12.1% a year earlier, while retail trade - 35.9% versus 14.3%. The total amount of corporate loans reached 17.7 trillion rubles., Retail - 5.6 trillion rubles. At the same time the major players have shown even higher rates than the sector as a whole. The credit portfolio of the Savings Bank in retail grew by 36.6% in the corporate sector - 34.1%, Gazprombank - 73% and 31% respectively. VTB 24 yesterday reported an increase in the retail portfolio to 40% (see reference on page 8).
The growth rate of lending, which has taken the banking sector, already wary of the regulator.
Alexei Simanovsky predicts that up to 2012 lending to grow by 20-25%, and such growth rates of the Central Bank considers safe for the system. "Talking about the dynamics of lending safer, proceed from the fact that 20-25% - this is a good speaker, which does not create additional excitement and at the same time, the regulator allows banks to operate normally," - said Mr. Simanovsky. According to him, the momentum indicators on credit "somewhat alarming and attract attention with regard to implications for banks, including the population, which at some point it becomes difficult to pay the debts, which implies an increase in the risks taken by banks."
In May 2008, the Central Bank, estimating the growth rate of lending in the banking system, noted that the hazards of the rate above 50%, slowing to 35-40% of control then called "normal". But in the current 36% in retail - indeed many, experts say. "The official inflation slowed from 11.9% in 2007 (when the system credit growth was 53% .-" b ") to 6.1% in 2011 - indicates the analyst" Sovlink "Olga Belenkaya .- That is, real terms, nominal 36% now - it's higher than the same 36% in 2007. Although the symptoms of the deterioration of solvency of the population are not available, the official forecast of Economic Development suggests a slowdown of GDP in 2012 to 3.7% from 4.2% in 2011 ". Besides, she adds, worried by the fact that real disposable income in 2011 did not grow, and in 2007 the growth of this indicator was 12.1%. "Thus, the credit boom in 2011 was not provided with the growth of real incomes of borrowers, which in the case of deteriorating economic conditions threaten the growth of bad loans" - concludes Mrs. Belenkaya. The optimism of the population, to actively finance in the second half of last year, may be exaggerated, adds Head of Strategy and Market Research VTB 24 Vadim Kraskov when the second half of the year there was a new crisis and begin to cut costs, as in 2008, then earned credits may no longer maintained, and this would pose a problem.
Bankers do not share these fears, assuming that the loan growth in 2011 was qualitatively different than before the crisis. "Our retail portfolio grew in 2011 by 30%, and this is clearly a qualitative growth, - says head of retail credit risk Unicredit Bank Victoria Polyakova .- The crisis has taught a balanced way, so the share of foreign currency loans declined by more than 50% at the time of the 2008 crisis to 22% of the portfolio has changed the evaluation criteria of the borrower, so if you happen again worsening the crisis, the quality of the generated now will affect the loan portfolio is insignificant. "
As a result of 2011 earnings of the banking sector amounted to a record 848 billion rbl., Reported yesterday, deputy chairman Alexei Simanovsky. In 2010, the financial result of the banking system amounted to only 550 billion rubles. This year's record result on profits is unlikely to happen again, predicts CB. "I do not think it will repeat the same profit," - said Mr. Simanovsky reporters on Thursday.
Record profit is largely due to no direct results of the banks in the past year, and the effect of the dissolution of reserves for possible loan losses, formed in 2008-2009. If in 2010 only part of the banks began to dissolve the reserves, the last year it began to make the most conservative players. Data on the proportion of all Russian banks earned 848 billion rubles. came to the dissolution of reserves, yet. However, for example, the Savings Bank during the year mainly dissolved previously established reserves as a result of their costs up to 2011 amounted to 5 billion rubles. against 155.5 billion rubles. a year earlier.
Factor of dissolution of previously established reserves gradually ceases to play a key role in banks' profits. However, the performance of their primary up to 2011 have been impressive. The growth of corporate lending in the system, according to Central Bank data, 26%, against 12.1% a year earlier, while retail trade - 35.9% versus 14.3%. The total amount of corporate loans reached 17.7 trillion rubles., Retail - 5.6 trillion rubles. At the same time the major players have shown even higher rates than the sector as a whole. The credit portfolio of the Savings Bank in retail grew by 36.6% in the corporate sector - 34.1%, Gazprombank - 73% and 31% respectively. VTB 24 yesterday reported an increase in the retail portfolio to 40% (see reference on page 8).
The growth rate of lending, which has taken the banking sector, already wary of the regulator.
Alexei Simanovsky predicts that up to 2012 lending to grow by 20-25%, and such growth rates of the Central Bank considers safe for the system. "Talking about the dynamics of lending safer, proceed from the fact that 20-25% - this is a good speaker, which does not create additional excitement and at the same time, the regulator allows banks to operate normally," - said Mr. Simanovsky. According to him, the momentum indicators on credit "somewhat alarming and attract attention with regard to implications for banks, including the population, which at some point it becomes difficult to pay the debts, which implies an increase in the risks taken by banks."
In May 2008, the Central Bank, estimating the growth rate of lending in the banking system, noted that the hazards of the rate above 50%, slowing to 35-40% of control then called "normal". But in the current 36% in retail - indeed many, experts say. "The official inflation slowed from 11.9% in 2007 (when the system credit growth was 53% .-" b ") to 6.1% in 2011 - indicates the analyst" Sovlink "Olga Belenkaya .- That is, real terms, nominal 36% now - it's higher than the same 36% in 2007. Although the symptoms of the deterioration of solvency of the population are not available, the official forecast of Economic Development suggests a slowdown of GDP in 2012 to 3.7% from 4.2% in 2011 ". Besides, she adds, worried by the fact that real disposable income in 2011 did not grow, and in 2007 the growth of this indicator was 12.1%. "Thus, the credit boom in 2011 was not provided with the growth of real incomes of borrowers, which in the case of deteriorating economic conditions threaten the growth of bad loans" - concludes Mrs. Belenkaya. The optimism of the population, to actively finance in the second half of last year, may be exaggerated, adds Head of Strategy and Market Research VTB 24 Vadim Kraskov when the second half of the year there was a new crisis and begin to cut costs, as in 2008, then earned credits may no longer maintained, and this would pose a problem.
Bankers do not share these fears, assuming that the loan growth in 2011 was qualitatively different than before the crisis. "Our retail portfolio grew in 2011 by 30%, and this is clearly a qualitative growth, - says head of retail credit risk Unicredit Bank Victoria Polyakova .- The crisis has taught a balanced way, so the share of foreign currency loans declined by more than 50% at the time of the 2008 crisis to 22% of the portfolio has changed the evaluation criteria of the borrower, so if you happen again worsening the crisis, the quality of the generated now will affect the loan portfolio is insignificant. "
No comments:
Post a Comment