20 August, 2011

Experts working on the "Strategy 2020"

Experts working on the "Strategy 2020" for the Russian government, came to the conclusion that the RZD should develop in state money. In addition, the team considers it necessary to revise the plan to sell subsidiaries of monopoly by imposing a ban on the sale of "strategic importance for the functioning of the branch companies." Findings were consistent with the fact that more than one year before the government is trying to convey itself a monopoly.

Expert Group, "Strategy 2020" published the next part of their opinions about the future economic development. At this time there were revealed the results of the study a subgroup of "Rail", in which experts have analyzed the reform of the railway industry.

Conclusions of overlap that the last two years trying to convey to the Government of OAO RZD. The experts of the "Strategy 2020" under the leadership of director general of the Institute of Natural Monopolies Yuri Sahakyan believes that the main problem of development of rail transport is "impossible in the short and medium term to fully meet the needs of the economy and population in traffic." As part of the cargo, according to experts, this is due to market liberalization: a situation where the Railways as the carrier is not his car, lost control efficiency of rolling stock, empty wagons of private owners and clog an already overburdened infrastructure sites. Passenger transport (long-distance trains on more than 40% of the total number of passengers of all modes of transportation) due to the removal of these subsidies are becoming more expensive. Suburban complex does not meet the requirements of the economy because of the lack of a mechanism of break-even commuter rail carriers, experts say.

To solve this problem there are three scenarios. The inertia, which can lead to degradation of the infrastructure of the complex: Goods will be exported not as much as you need and how many will turn out. The liberal scenario involves only state to retain the infrastructure, greatly increasing the tariff for its use, and all other rail activities (including shipping) to give private owners. The consequences of such a solution can be degraded a number of industries, including coal, believe in the "Strategy 2020": The industry can not cope with the increase of transportation costs in production costs.

While experts tend to the third option, which is indicated in the documents as a "soft budget". Its essence lies in the allocation of funds to the Railways for infrastructure projects (RZD evaluates these needs until the year 2015 about 450 billion rubles).. But beyond that, experts believe that the railway monopoly to retain the status of a leading operator of freight cars, retaining "major subsidiary". To do this, Railways should review the program of selling its "daughters" with the imposition of ban on the sale of companies that have strategic importance for the functioning of rail transport in general. The names of companies not listed in the document, but it is clear that this is a second cargo company, in which control Railways should sell after 2015.

General Director of the agency «Infoline-analyst" Michael Burmistrov surprised that such a strong and authoritative expert group considered Railways, but still tougher version of: previously the monopoly did not resist the gradual sale of its subsidiaries. "It is strange that the document does not reflect the experts the most important issue today: the lack of an effective management mechanism in private wagons park", - says Mikhail Burmistrov. According to him, Railways during the years of reform were to solve this problem, but instead took only a few solutions "manual mode", which is now the main threat to the implementation of traffic to the extent demanded by the economy.

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